Here we go again! Public M&A in 2026 has continued where it left off in 2025. With a backdrop of wrecking-ball geopolitics, casino-like trading in public markets, and somewhat sticky (and threateningly oily) inflation, public M&A continues to move like the big dipper. Big announcements can land with big disappointments (think Rio/Glencore) and, if bidders hit the brakes, Court and Panel proceedings (think Mayne).
What themes drove the train last year and what’s ahead this year? Here are our views looking back through the rearview mirror and looking forward through the crystal ball.
We think public M&A is being driven by three key trends: more volatility, more contests and more regulation. Pull down your lap bar and get ready for the rough ride!
Last year’s flying turns
Last year’s ‘steady as she goes’ Australian public M&A data (both in terms of number of deals and deal value) obscures some ascending trends. Certain hard assets and commodities enjoyed safe(r) haven status, driving consolidation and acquisitions. Headline deals included:
- Northern Star’s acquisition of De Grey and Gold Fields’s acquisition of Gold Road, driven by gold M&A’s twin poles of portfolio expansion and operational consolidation, and following a number of whopping gold sector combinations in previous years like Newmont/Newcrest.
- Brookfield/GIC consortium’s proposed acquisition of National Storage REIT.
- The Brickworks and Soul Patts merger, which not only unwound Australia’s longest-standing cross-shareholding, but created a diversified investment house spanning building products, industrial property and other segments.
Not everything in hard assets and commodities was a success, however: the collapse of the ADNOC/XRG consortium’s bid for Santos came like a triple dip for shareholders following the abandonment of two previous proposals from Woodside and Harbour Energy.
Private capital continued to play a significant role in last year’s public M&A scene. Not only was CC Capital’s proposed acquisition of Insignia Financial one of the largest deals of the year, but it also highlighted ongoing opportunities in the financial services sector. The corkscrew to the private capital story was Cosette’s spin out of a binding deal to acquire Mayne, resulting in Court litigation and a trip to the Takeovers Panel.
The brutal Cosette/Mayne bump wasn’t isolated. Listed company contests kept the Takeovers Panel extremely busy, with 36 reasons for decisions published in 2025, nearly outnumbering the combined total of the previous two years. Adversarial battles over public companies were matched with hotly contested public debates. The James Hardie/AZEK and Southern Cross/Seven West Media transactions prompted swift investor backlash, resulting in ASX’s public consultation on the Listing Rules. And while we await the outcome of ASX’s consultation, the Government’s new merger control regime officially commenced on 1 January this year.
A double loop this year?
As 2026 accelerates, we are seeing volatility, contests and regulation drive public M&A into familiar places.
Hard assets continue to be attractive. The Qube transaction will take another listed infrastructure player from ASX (leaving only three big players left!), while the public proposal for BlueScope and rumours about Fletcher Building illustrate that industrials remain in the loop for future M&A and may provide the next Boral and Brickworks stories. While a Glencore/Rio combination did not materialise in the first two months of this year, we expect more mining and resources deals. Oil, gold and critical minerals, amongst others, should continue to provide flying turns for consolidation and opportunistic acquisitions.
Opportunities in the financial services sector continue to entice. We have already seen a very large deal emerge with the announcement of Magellan’s proposed merger with Barrenjoey, which saw its share price go sky high.
Public M&A remains contestable this year, as illustrated domestically by the battle for BlueScope and overseas by the Warner Brothers bidding war. Likewise, we expect regulation and regulatory conditions to remain buzzwords in public M&A, not only as a result of most deals requiring merger filings, but also to minimise the risk of another Cosette/Mayne. Last, but by no means least, there are a few more chapters to be written in the Mayne/Cosette story with Mayne reported to be seeking a $13.6 million gross sum costs order from Cosette.
Departures from last year’s track
Not everything in 2026 will follow the 2025 playbook.
AI disruption has ratcheted a potential “SaaSpocalypse” impacting the short-term prices of a number of ASX-listed technology stocks. While the market reaction to AI may well prove to be a vertical loop, there are a large number of well capitalised US companies who will be watching Australia’s technology stocks carefully.
Private capital is showing signs of moving from trade sales and secondaries to potential IPOs. Encouragingly, we have seen more activity in the IPO preparation space than we have for a while, as momentum builds for what could be a relatively busy second half of potential listings if everything stays on track.
This will only be aided by ASIC’s recent Public / Private Markets report, which foreshadowed upcoming plans to revisit the approach to analyst research, relax publicity restrictions and work towards facilitating sell downs by founders and insiders of shares. This follows ASIC’s IPO timetable reforms mid-last year to help reduce the time between pricing of an IPO and listing, which we and others were strong advocates of.
While there was talk of activity in private credit and non-bank lenders last year, the announcement of a potential take-private of Pepper Money illustrates that there is more M&A to come – and potentially an IPO – in the financial services sector.
Finally, we expect shareholders and other stakeholders to exert a greater influence on public M&A activity in 2026. The presence of major institutional investors on the Qube and BlueScope registers highlights that key shareholders, as well as regulators and other stakeholders, will expect a seat on this year’s rollercoaster public M&A ride.
